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Sidama Bunna vs Welayta Dicha — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Welayta Dicha
Welayta Dicha
5/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Sidama Bunna37%
×Draw30%
Welayta Dicha34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
1.10
Welayta Dicha
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Welayta Dicha
1.06

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Welayta Dicha
1.07

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Welayta Dicha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Welayta Dicha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
66%
Sidama Bunna or Welayta Dicha
70%
Draw or Welayta Dicha
63%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
15%
Welayta Dicha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
67%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
30%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
10%
Welayta Dicha 1+ goals
65%
Welayta Dicha 2+ goals
28%
Welayta Dicha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
52%
Welayta Dicha (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Welayta Dicha away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Welayta Dicha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Welayta Dicha attack 1.06 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
37%
level
30%
Welayta Dicha scores more
34%

Sidama Bunna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidama Bunna vs Welayta Dicha

Sidama Bunna beat Welayta Dicha 1-0 in Premier League on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.