Sidama Bunna 2–2 Mekelakeya: Result & Stats

Sidama Bunna

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mekelakeya

5/8/2025

Premier League · Round 28Hawassa Artificial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sidama Bunna30%

×Draw29%

Mekelakeya40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidama BunnaExpected goals in this matchMekelakeya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.19

Sidama Bunna

0.99

Mekelakeya

1.19

Mekelakeya creates 20% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 81 away

1.13

creates per match

1.35

1.02

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Sidama Bunna

1.13

Mekelakeya

1.35

allows per match

Sidama Bunna

1.02

Mekelakeya

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Mekelakeya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Mekelakeya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw

60%

Sidama Bunna or Mekelakeya

71%

Draw or Mekelakeya

70%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+

11%

Mekelakeya wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals

63%

Sidama Bunna 2+ goals

26%

Sidama Bunna 3+ goals

8%

Mekelakeya 1+ goals

70%

Mekelakeya 2+ goals

33%

Mekelakeya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)

43%

Mekelakeya (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Mekelakeya away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Mekelakeya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Mekelakeya attack 1.35 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more

30%

level

29%

Mekelakeya scores more

40%

Mekelakeya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mekelakeya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff