Sidama Bunna 1–1 Kedus Giorgis: Result & Stats

Sidama Bunna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kedus Giorgis

12/21/2025

Premier League · Round 10Hawassa Kenema Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Sidama Bunna30%

×Draw30%

Kedus Giorgis41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sidama BunnaExpected goals in this matchKedus Giorgis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.16

Sidama Bunna

0.94

Kedus Giorgis

1.16

Kedus Giorgis creates 23% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

1.13

creates per match

1.29

1.02

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Sidama Bunna

1.13

Kedus Giorgis

1.29

allows per match

Sidama Bunna

1.02

Kedus Giorgis

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Kedus Giorgis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw

59%

Sidama Bunna or Kedus Giorgis

70%

Draw or Kedus Giorgis

70%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+

10%

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals

61%

Sidama Bunna 2+ goals

24%

Sidama Bunna 3+ goals

7%

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

69%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

32%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)

42%

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more

30%

level

30%

Kedus Giorgis scores more

41%

Kedus Giorgis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff