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Sidama Bunna vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
6/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sidama Bunna45%
×Draw29%
Jimma Aba Jifar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
1.23
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.86

Sidama Bunna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
74%
Sidama Bunna or Jimma Aba Jifar
71%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
55%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
20%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
71%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
35%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
13%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
58%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
21%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
63%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
45%
level
29%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
26%

Sidama Bunna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidama Bunna vs Jimma Aba Jifar

Sidama Bunna beat Jimma Aba Jifar 2-1 in Premier League on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.