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Sidama Bunna vs Bahardar — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bahardar
Bahardar
7/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Hawassa University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Sidama Bunna32%
×Draw30%
Bahardar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
0.99
Bahardar
1.09

Bahardar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Bahardar
1.16

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Bahardar
0.85

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Bahardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
62%
Sidama Bunna or Bahardar
70%
Draw or Bahardar
68%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
12%
Bahardar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
63%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
26%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
8%
Bahardar 1+ goals
66%
Bahardar 2+ goals
30%
Bahardar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
46%
Bahardar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
32%
level
30%
Bahardar scores more
38%

Bahardar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sidama Bunna 2–1 Bahardar

Sidama Bunna beat Bahardar 2-1 in Premier League on July 4, 2024.

The match was played at Hawassa University Stadium in Hawassa.