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Sidama Bunna vs Adama Kenema — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
3/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Sidama Bunna39%
×Draw29%
Adama Kenema32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
1.18
Adama Kenema
1.03

Sidama Bunna creates 15% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Adama Kenema
1.04

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Adama Kenema
1.23

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Adama Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Adama Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
68%
Sidama Bunna or Adama Kenema
71%
Draw or Adama Kenema
61%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
17%
Adama Kenema wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
69%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
33%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
12%
Adama Kenema 1+ goals
64%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
55%
Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Adama Kenema away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Adama Kenema defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Adama Kenema attack 1.04 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
39%
level
29%
Adama Kenema scores more
32%

Sidama Bunna at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidama Bunna vs Adama Kenema

Sidama Bunna and Adama Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.