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Sichuan Longfor vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
10/19/2019League OneLeague One · Round 28Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor55%
×Draw24%
Xinjiang Tianshan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Longfor
1.74
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.98

Sichuan Longfor creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw
79%
Sichuan Longfor or Xinjiang Tianshan
76%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
45%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
31%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
82%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
52%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
62%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
26%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
72%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more
55%
level
24%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
21%

Sichuan Longfor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sichuan Longfor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sichuan Longfor vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Sichuan Longfor beat Xinjiang Tianshan 4-2 in League One on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.