Sichuan Longfor 2–3 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Sichuan Longfor

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

10/26/2019

League One · Round 29Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor39%

×Draw25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan LongforExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.40

Sichuan Longfor

1.45

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.33

creates per match

1.47

1.33

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor

1.33

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.47

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor

1.33

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw

64%

Sichuan Longfor or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

75%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

61%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+

18%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals

77%

Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals

42%

Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals

18%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

75%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

41%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)

51%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more

39%

level

25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

36%

Sichuan Longfor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sichuan Longfor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff