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Sichuan Longfor vs Qingdao Huanghai — League One 2018

Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Huanghai
Qingdao Huanghai
5/4/2019League OneLeague One · Round 8Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor36%
×Draw24%
Qingdao Huanghai40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Longfor
1.50
Qingdao Huanghai
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Qingdao Huanghai
1.88

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Qingdao Huanghai
1.66

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par
Qingdao Huanghai+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Qingdao Huanghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw
60%
Sichuan Longfor or Qingdao Huanghai
76%
Draw or Qingdao Huanghai
64%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
17%
Qingdao Huanghai wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
78%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
44%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
19%
Qingdao Huanghai 1+ goals
80%
Qingdao Huanghai 2+ goals
47%
Qingdao Huanghai 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
47%
Qingdao Huanghai (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Qingdao Huanghai away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Qingdao Huanghai defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Qingdao Huanghai attack 1.88 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more
36%
level
24%
Qingdao Huanghai scores more
40%

Qingdao Huanghai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Qingdao Huanghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sichuan Longfor vs Qingdao Huanghai

Qingdao Huanghai beat Sichuan Longfor 2-1 in League One on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.