Sichuan Longfor 0–0 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

Sichuan Longfor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nantong Zhiyun

9/21/2019

League One · Round 26Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor32%

×Draw27%

Nantong Zhiyun41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan LongforExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.35

Sichuan Longfor

1.15

Nantong Zhiyun

1.35

Nantong Zhiyun creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

1.33

creates per match

1.38

1.33

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor

1.33

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor

1.33

Nantong Zhiyun

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw

59%

Sichuan Longfor or Nantong Zhiyun

73%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

68%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+

13%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals

68%

Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals

32%

Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals

11%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

74%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

39%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)

44%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more

32%

level

27%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

41%

Nantong Zhiyun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff