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Sichuan Longfor vs Meizhou Meixian Techand — League One 2018

Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
3/30/2019League OneLeague One · Round 3Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor44%
×Draw24%
Meizhou Meixian Techand32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Longfor
1.60
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

Sichuan Longfor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.87

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par
Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw
68%
Sichuan Longfor or Meizhou Meixian Techand
76%
Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand
56%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
22%
Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
80%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
47%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
22%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
74%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
38%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
58%
Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more
44%
level
24%
Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
32%

Sichuan Longfor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sichuan Longfor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Sichuan Longfor 0–2 Meizhou Meixian Techand

Meizhou Meixian Techand beat Sichuan Longfor 2-0 in League One on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.