Sichuan Longfor 1–2 Hangzhou Greentown

Sichuan Longfor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hangzhou Greentown

8/3/2019

League One · Round 20Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor31%

×Draw25%

Hangzhou Greentown44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan LongforExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

Sichuan Longfor

1.23

Hangzhou Greentown

1.52

Hangzhou Greentown creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

1.33

creates per match

1.71

1.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor

1.33

Hangzhou Greentown

1.71

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor

1.33

Hangzhou Greentown

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw

56%

Sichuan Longfor or Hangzhou Greentown

75%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

69%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+

13%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals

71%

Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals

35%

Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals

13%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

78%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

45%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)

41%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.71 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more

31%

level

25%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

44%

Hangzhou Greentown at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff