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Sichuan Longfor vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
5/18/2019League OneLeague One · Round 10Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor40%
×Draw27%
Guizhou Zhicheng33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Longfor
1.35
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.19

Sichuan Longfor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw
67%
Sichuan Longfor or Guizhou Zhicheng
73%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
60%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
19%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
74%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
39%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
15%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
70%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
33%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
55%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more
40%
level
27%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
33%

Sichuan Longfor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sichuan Longfor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Sichuan Longfor 1–2 Guizhou Zhicheng

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Sichuan Longfor 2-1 in League One on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.