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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Zibo Cuju — League One 2018

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zibo Cuju
Zibo Cuju
11/29/2022League OneLeague One · Round 32Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu49%
×Draw26%
Zibo Cuju24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.47
Zibo Cuju
0.94

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 56% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.23
Zibo Cuju
1.06

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
0.82
Zibo Cuju
1.71

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par
Zibo Cuju+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Zibo Cuju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
76%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Zibo Cuju
74%
Draw or Zibo Cuju
51%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
25%
Zibo Cuju wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
77%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
43%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
18%
Zibo Cuju 1+ goals
61%
Zibo Cuju 2+ goals
24%
Zibo Cuju 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
67%
Zibo Cuju (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Zibo Cuju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Zibo Cuju defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zibo Cuju attack 1.06 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
49%
level
26%
Zibo Cuju scores more
24%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sichuan Jiuniu 1 – 0 Zibo Cuju

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Zibo Cuju 1-0 in League One on November 29, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3 in Dalian.