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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
3/29/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu45%
×Draw23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.79
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.50

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.52
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.75
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
67%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
77%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
55%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
24%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
83%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
53%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
26%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
78%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
44%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
58%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.52 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
45%
level
23%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
33%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Sichuan Jiuniu 2–2 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 2-2 in Super League on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Shenzhen.