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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban — Super League 2026

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
Wesley Moraes 6'
4/26/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Baoan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu42%
×Draw24%
Shenyang Urban34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.60
Shenyang Urban
1.40

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.37
Shenyang Urban
1.08

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.71
Shenyang Urban
1.82

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.15scores more
Shenyang Urban-0.37scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Shenyang Urban →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
66%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Shenyang Urban
76%
Draw or Shenyang Urban
58%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
21%
Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
80%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
47%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
22%
Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
75%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
41%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
56%
Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.71 · 23 matches

Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.82 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.37 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shenyang Urban attack 1.08 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
42%
level
24%
Shenyang Urban scores more
34%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Wesley MoraesSichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu · F
7.9

Match Events

6'
Wesley Moraes↳ Z. Xuan
8'
Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere
17'
Dong Xu
29'
Ange Kouamé
46'
Chen Binbin← Jeffinho
54'
Zhipeng Jiang
66'
Tian Yuda← A. Kouame
66'
Yan Dinghao← G. Mbenza
71'
Pavle Vagić
72'
Zhang Xiaobin← Dai Wai-Tsun
82'
Li Ning← D. Owusu-Sekyere
82'
T. Chow← Yao Junsheng
82'
Tian Deao← T. Kunimoto
90+8'
Wesley Moraes
90+5'
Peng Peng
90+4'
H. Shen← Jiang Zhipeng

Possession

36%Sichuan

Shots

9Sichuan

Pass accuracy

48%Sichuan

Statistics

SichuanShenyang
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots12
1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.42
1Corners8
12Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots12
2On Target3
5Off Target7
2Blocked2
4Inside Box5
5Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
308Total Passes518
236Accurate Passes436
77%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shenyang Urban

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shenyang Urban 1-0 in Super League on April 26, 2026.

Goals: Wesley Moraes (6').

Shenyang Urban controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Baoan Stadium in Shenzhen.