Sichuan Jiuniu 0–3 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

8/17/2022

League One · Round 16Jiangsu Jiangning Football Training Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu36%

×Draw29%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchShaanxi Changan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.12

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.14

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

1.23

creates per match

1.42

0.82

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.23

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.42

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

0.82

Shaanxi Changan Athletic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

65%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

71%

Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic

64%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

15%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

68%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

32%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

11%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals

67%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals

31%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

51%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

36%

level

29%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more

35%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff