Sichuan Jiuniu 3–0 Qingdao Youth Island

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Qingdao Youth Island

Gabriel Xavier 54'

Yiming Yang 43'

Junsheng Yao 30'

7/11/2026

Super League · Round 18Shenzhen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu44%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Youth Island33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchQingdao Youth Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.46

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.71

Qingdao Youth Island

1.46

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

1.52

creates per match

1.18

1.75

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.52

Qingdao Youth Island

1.18

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.75

Qingdao Youth Island

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

67%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Qingdao Youth Island

77%

Draw or Qingdao Youth Island

56%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

23%

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

82%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

51%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

24%

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

77%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

43%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

57%

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.52 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.18 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

44%

level

23%

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

33%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Yao Junsheng

Sichuan Jiuniu · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

Peng Wang← Rezende

30'

Junsheng Yao↳ Wesley Moraes

43'

Yiming Yang

45+6'

Eden Karzev

45+7'

Xiuwei Zhang

46'

Yang Zhanpeng← Xiuwei Zhang

54'

Gabriel Xavier

67'

Longhai He← Gengrui Wang

71'

Jianfei Zhao← Huanming Shen

72'

Wesley Moraes

72'

Peng Wang

76'

Zhang Yufeng← Junsheng Yao

76'

Li Ning← Albion Ademi

79'

Longhai He

88'

Jia Weiwei← Chengdong Zhang

89'

Jingchao Meng← Davidson

90'

Dalong Xia← Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SichuanQingdao

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots11

5Corners3

20Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots11

8On Target3

10Off Target5

1Blocked3

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

309Total Passes380

250Accurate Passes314

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0