Sichuan Jiuniu 2–0 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

Wesley Moraes 72', 34' (pen)

8/31/2025

Super League · Round 23Longquanyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu49%

×Draw23%

Meizhou Kejia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.38

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.88

Meizhou Kejia

1.38

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.03

1.72

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.38

Meizhou Kejia

1.03

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.72

Meizhou Kejia

2.37

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.24scores more

Meizhou Kejia-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

72%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Meizhou Kejia

77%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

51%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

27%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

85%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

56%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

29%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

75%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

40%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

63%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 26 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.37 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.38 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.88

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

49%

level

23%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

28%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Wesley Moraes

Sichuan Jiuniu · F

8.5

Match Events

2'

Rade Dugalić

26'

Eden Karzev

34'

Wesley MoraesPenalty

46'

Wei Xiangxin← Yang Chaosheng

46'

Yang Yihu← Rao Weihui

54'

Liu Yun← Deng Yubiao

72'

Wesley Moraes

74'

Liao Lisheng← Wesley Moraes

81'

Tian Ziyi← Liao Junjian

84'

H. Shahsat← Zhang Yudong

85'

Yang Yiming← Wang Qiao

90'

Wei Zhang

90+1'

Yu Rui← Hu Ruibao

90+2'

Li Ning← Tiago Leonco

90+2'

Yang Ruiqi← Wang Jia'nan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SichuanMeizhou

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots17

2.22Expected Goals (xG)1.08

4Corners6

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots17

7On Target7

4Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

372Total Passes336

303Accurate Passes274

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0