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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2026

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
7/8/2022League OneLeague One · Round 8Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu44%
×Draw28%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.31
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
0.97

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 124 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.23
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
0.82
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
72%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
72%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
56%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
20%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
73%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
38%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
14%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
62%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
25%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
62%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
44%
level
28%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
28%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 in League One on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.