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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
7/13/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 1Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu45%
×Draw28%
Guizhou Zhicheng27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.30
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.94

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 41 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.23
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
0.82
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
73%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Guizhou Zhicheng
72%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
55%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
21%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
73%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
37%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
14%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
61%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
24%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
62%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.30

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
45%
level
28%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
27%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Guizhou Zhicheng 1-0 in League One on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre in Wuhan.