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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — FA Cup 2019

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
11/16/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundDalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu48%
×Draw21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
2.21
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.79

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
2.43
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.57
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
68%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
79%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
52%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
28%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
89%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
65%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
38%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
83%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
53%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
60%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 2.43 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.00 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
48%
level
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
32%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Sichuan Jiuniu 2–4 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-2 in FA Cup on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.