Sichuan Jiuniu 2–3 Dantong Hantong: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Dantong Hantong

5/10/2023

League One · Round 4Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu49%

×Draw30%

Dantong Hantong21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchDantong Hantong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.71

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.25

Dantong Hantong

0.71

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 76% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

0.60

0.82

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.23

Dantong Hantong

0.60

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

0.82

Dantong Hantong

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Dantong Hantong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

79%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Dantong Hantong

70%

Draw or Dantong Hantong

51%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

23%

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

71%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

36%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

13%

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals

51%

Dantong Hantong 2+ goals

16%

Dantong Hantong 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

70%

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

49%

level

30%

Dantong Hantong scores more

21%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff