Sichuan Jiuniu 5–0 Beijing Baxy: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beijing Baxy

10/26/2022

League One · Round 25Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu47%

×Draw27%

Beijing Baxy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchBeijing Baxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.95

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.40

Beijing Baxy

0.95

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 47% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 71 away

1.23

creates per match

1.07

0.82

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.23

Beijing Baxy

1.07

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

0.82

Beijing Baxy

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Beijing Baxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

74%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Beijing Baxy

73%

Draw or Beijing Baxy

53%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

23%

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

75%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

41%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

17%

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

61%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

25%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

65%

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

47%

level

27%

Beijing Baxy scores more

26%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff