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Sibir vs Zenit 2 — First League 2018

Sibir
Sibir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
9/19/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Spartak (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir45%
×Draw31%
Zenit 223%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibir
1.13
Zenit 2
0.72

Sibir creates 57% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sibir
0.70
Zenit 2
0.75

allows per match

Sibir
0.70
Zenit 2
1.55

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sibir or draw
77%
Sibir or Zenit 2
69%
Draw or Zenit 2
55%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+
19%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals
68%
Sibir 2+ goals
31%
Sibir 3+ goals
11%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
51%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
16%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)
66%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Zenit 2 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Zenit 2 attack 0.75 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sibir scores more
45%
level
31%
Zenit 2 scores more
23%

Sibir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sibir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sibir 0–1 Zenit 2

Zenit 2 beat Sibir 1-0 in First League on September 19, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Novosibirsk).