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Sibir vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2018

Sibir
Sibir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
10/13/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 16RFTs Zarya manezh (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir29%
×Draw34%
Nizhny Novgorod37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibir
0.79
Nizhny Novgorod
0.94

Nizhny Novgorod creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sibir
0.70
Nizhny Novgorod
1.19

allows per match

Sibir
0.70
Nizhny Novgorod
0.89

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sibir or draw
63%
Sibir or Nizhny Novgorod
66%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
71%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+
9%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals
55%
Sibir 2+ goals
19%
Sibir 3+ goals
5%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
61%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
24%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)
44%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sibir scores more
29%
level
34%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
37%

Nizhny Novgorod at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sibir 0–0 Nizhny Novgorod

Sibir and Nizhny Novgorod drew 0-0 in First League on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at RFTs Zarya manezh (Novosibirsk).