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Sibir vs Khimki — First League 2018

Sibir
Sibir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
8/26/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Spartak (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir32%
×Draw31%
Khimki37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibir
0.94
Khimki
1.04

Khimki creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sibir
0.70
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Sibir
0.70
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sibir or draw
63%
Sibir or Khimki
69%
Draw or Khimki
68%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+
11%
Khimki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals
61%
Sibir 2+ goals
24%
Sibir 3+ goals
7%
Khimki 1+ goals
65%
Khimki 2+ goals
28%
Khimki 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)
46%
Khimki (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Khimki attack 1.39 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sibir scores more
32%
level
31%
Khimki scores more
37%

Khimki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sibir 1 – 2 Khimki

Khimki beat Sibir 2-1 in First League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Novosibirsk).