Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sibir vs Fakel Voronezh — First League 2018

Sibir
Sibir
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
11/24/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 24RFTs Zarya manezh (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir36%
×Draw31%
Fakel Voronezh33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibir
1.00
Fakel Voronezh
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

creates per match

Sibir
0.70
Fakel Voronezh
1.20

allows per match

Sibir
0.70
Fakel Voronezh
1.31

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par
Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Fakel Voronezh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sibir or draw
67%
Sibir or Fakel Voronezh
69%
Draw or Fakel Voronezh
64%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+
14%
Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals
63%
Sibir 2+ goals
26%
Sibir 3+ goals
8%
Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
61%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
25%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)
52%
Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sibir scores more
36%
level
31%
Fakel Voronezh scores more
33%

Sibir at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sibir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sibir 2–0 Fakel Voronezh

Sibir beat Fakel Voronezh 2-0 in First League on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at RFTs Zarya manezh (Novosibirsk).