Sibir 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow: Result & Stats

Sibir

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chertanovo Moscow

3/30/2019

First League · Round 29RFTs Zarya manezh (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir39%

×Draw30%

Chertanovo Moscow31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibirExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.95

Sibir

1.12

Chertanovo Moscow

0.95

Sibir creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 54 away

0.70

creates per match

1.20

0.70

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sibir

0.70

Chertanovo Moscow

1.20

allows per match

Sibir

0.70

Chertanovo Moscow

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sibir or draw

69%

Sibir or Chertanovo Moscow

70%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

61%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+

16%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals

67%

Sibir 2+ goals

31%

Sibir 3+ goals

10%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

61%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

25%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)

56%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sibir scores more

39%

level

30%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

31%

Sibir at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sibir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff