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Sibenik vs Zrinski Jurjevac — First NL 2018

Sibenik
Sibenik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
9/1/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 4Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sibenik60%
×Draw23%
Zrinski Jurjevac17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibenik
1.77
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.80

Sibenik creates 121% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sibenik
2.02
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.91

allows per match

Sibenik
0.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw
83%
Sibenik or Zrinski Jurjevac
77%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
40%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+
35%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals
83%
Sibenik 2+ goals
53%
Sibenik 3+ goals
26%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
55%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
19%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)
78%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 2.02 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Sibenik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sibenik scores more
60%
level
23%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
17%

Sibenik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sibenik vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Sibenik beat Zrinski Jurjevac 3-0 in First NL on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.