Sibenik 5–0 NK Zadar: Result & Stats | First NL

Sibenik

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

NK Zadar

P. Lokin 90+2'

V. Kendeš 71'

M. Bulat 43'

D. Kukec 19' (pen)

P. Ampem 8'

3/9/2019

First NL · Round 15Stadion Šubićevac (Šibenik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sibenik67%

×Draw20%

NK Zadar14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.85

Sibenik

2.13

NK Zadar

0.85

Sibenik creates 151% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

2.02

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Sibenik

2.02

NK Zadar

1.00

allows per match

Sibenik

0.70

NK Zadar

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

NK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

86%

Sibenik or NK Zadar

80%

Draw or NK Zadar

33%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

42%

NK Zadar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

88%

Sibenik 2+ goals

63%

Sibenik 3+ goals

35%

NK Zadar 1+ goals

57%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

21%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

83%

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 2.02 + NK Zadar defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.13

NK Zadar attack 1.00 + Sibenik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sibenik scores more

67%

level

20%

NK Zadar scores more

14%

Sibenik at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

P. Ampem

19'

D. KukecPenalty

43'

M. Bulat

71'

V. Kendeš

90+2'

P. Lokin

Sibenik

NK

21

1

15

25

3

17

10

4

16

2

99

1

4

2

18

11

15

10

⚽

Kukec

16

Maleš

14

⚽

Ampem

19

⚽

Bulat

9

Antunović

Manager: B. Perković

Sibenik substitutes

7Kendeš8Fuštin24Stanić27Lokin95Rogić6Bilić21Celić

Manager: M. Karoglan

NK Zadar substitutes

6Tokić20Jurić26Jurjević22Kulaš28Katuša12Pinčić11Llanos

Match Recap: Sibenik vs NK Zadar

Sibenik beat NK Zadar 5-0 in First NL on March 9, 2019.

Goals: P. Ampem (8'), D. Kukec (19' pen), M. Bulat (43'), V. Kendeš (71'), P. Lokin (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac (Šibenik).

Sibenik vs NK Zadar — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sibenik vs NK Zadar