Sibenik 1–2 NK Varazdin: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

NK Varazdin

I. Dolček 60'

M. Pilj 90+4'

F. Brodić 71' (pen)

10/28/2022

HNL · Round 15Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik43%

×Draw27%

NK Varazdin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchNK Varazdin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.10

Sibenik

1.37

NK Varazdin

1.10

Sibenik creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.11

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

NK Varazdin

1.04

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

NK Varazdin

1.63

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

NK Varazdin-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

NK Varazdin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

70%

Sibenik or NK Varazdin

73%

Draw or NK Varazdin

57%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

20%

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

75%

Sibenik 2+ goals

40%

Sibenik 3+ goals

16%

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

67%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

30%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

59%

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + NK Varazdin defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

NK Varazdin attack 1.04 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sibenik scores more

43%

level

27%

NK Varazdin scores more

30%

Sibenik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Dolček

Sibenik · M

7.9

Match Events

34'

35'

46'

60'

62'

65'

65'

67'

M. Pilj← A. Elezi

67'

K. Perić← M. Stolnik

71'

F. BrodićPenalty

78'

Burgui← I. Vidović

79'

A. Herrera← F. Brodić

80'

81'

88'

90+3'

90+3'

90+1'

S. Marasovic← I. Dolček

90+4'

M. Pilj↳ K. Perić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikNK

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots9

3Corners0

24Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

8On Target6

8Off Target2

2Blocked1

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

331Total Passes404

234Accurate Passes327

71%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

24Fouls11

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sibenik vs NK Varazdin

NK Varazdin beat Sibenik 2-1 in HNL on October 28, 2022.

Goals: I. Dolček (60'), F. Brodić (71' pen), M. Pilj (90+4').

NK Varazdin controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.

Sibenik vs NK Varazdin — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sibenik vs NK Varazdin