NK Varazdin 2–1 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Varazdin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sibenik

L. Belcar 46'

M. Dabro 6'

L. Kulušić 82'

11/29/2024

HNL · Round 15Stadion Anđelko Herjavec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

NK Varazdin43%

×Draw28%

Sibenik29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK VarazdinExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

NK Varazdin

1.30

Sibenik

1.03

NK Varazdin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

1.01

1.05

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

NK Varazdin

1.35

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

NK Varazdin

1.05

Sibenik

1.25

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

NK Varazdin-0.13scores less

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Varazdin ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

NK Varazdin or draw

71%

NK Varazdin or Sibenik

72%

Draw or Sibenik

57%

Winning margin

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

19%

Sibenik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

73%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

37%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

14%

Sibenik 1+ goals

64%

Sibenik 2+ goals

28%

Sibenik 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

59%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Varazdin at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 18 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Varazdin attack 1.35 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sibenik attack 1.01 + NK Varazdin defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

NK Varazdin scores more

43%

level

28%

Sibenik scores more

29%

NK Varazdin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Šego

NK Varazdin · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

18'

33'

39'

46'

46'

M. Prekodravac← I. Roca

46'

L. Belcar↳ M. Šego

59'

Ivan Santini

62'

J. Poldrugač← M. Dabro

62'

A. Latković← L. Mamić

62'

Iker Pozo← J. Majić

72'

L. Kulušić← O. Bakić

77'

Iker Pozo

78'

T. Duvnjak← D. Mitrovski

80'

I. Delić← I. Santini

82'

L. Kulušić↳ M. Prekodravac

87'

Tomislav Duvnjak

90+2'

Lovre Kulušić

90+4'

N. Tepšić← A. Boršić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKSibenik

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots6

3Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots6

6On Target2

3Off Target2

2Blocked2

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

470Total Passes335

388Accurate Passes249

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

4Offsides5

HNL: NK Varazdin 2–1 Sibenik

NK Varazdin beat Sibenik 2-1 in HNL on November 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Dabro (6'), L. Belcar (46'), L. Kulušić (82').

NK Varazdin controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in Varaždin.

NK Varazdin vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: NK Varazdin 2–1 Sibenik