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Sibenik vs Croatia Zmijavci — First NL 2018

Sibenik
Sibenik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
3/2/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 20Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sibenik62%
×Draw22%
Croatia Zmijavci16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibenik
1.84
Croatia Zmijavci
0.80

Sibenik creates 130% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sibenik
2.02
Croatia Zmijavci
0.90

allows per match

Sibenik
0.70
Croatia Zmijavci
1.67

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par
Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Croatia Zmijavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw
84%
Sibenik or Croatia Zmijavci
78%
Draw or Croatia Zmijavci
38%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+
36%
Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals
84%
Sibenik 2+ goals
55%
Sibenik 3+ goals
28%
Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals
55%
Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals
19%
Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)
80%
Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 2.02 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.84

Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Sibenik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sibenik scores more
62%
level
22%
Croatia Zmijavci scores more
16%

Sibenik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Sibenik 2–1 Croatia Zmijavci

Sibenik beat Croatia Zmijavci 2-1 in First NL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.