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SibboV vs RiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

SibboV
SibboV
FT
2 – 3
RiPS
RiPS
3/22/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundSöderkullan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SibboV23%
×Draw17%
RiPS60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SibboV
1.82
RiPS
2.95

RiPS creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

SibboV
2.50
RiPS
3.14

allows per match

SibboV
2.75
RiPS
1.14

finishing

SibboV+0.00on par
RiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SibboV ↓

RiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

SibboV or draw
40%
SibboV or RiPS
83%
Draw or RiPS
77%

Winning margin

SibboV wins by 2+
11%
RiPS wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

SibboV 1+ goals
84%
SibboV 2+ goals
54%
SibboV 3+ goals
27%
RiPS 1+ goals
95%
RiPS 2+ goals
79%
RiPS 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

SibboV (draw refunded)
28%
RiPS (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SibboV at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

RiPS away — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SibboV attack 2.50 + RiPS defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.82

RiPS attack 3.14 + SibboV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SibboV scores more
23%
level
17%
RiPS scores more
60%

RiPS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "RiPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: SibboV 2–3 RiPS

RiPS beat SibboV 3-2 in Suomen Cup on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Söderkullan tekonurmi in Sipoo.