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SibboV vs NuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

SibboV
SibboV
FT
1 – 7
NuPS
NuPS
4/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundSöderkullan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SibboV9%
×Draw10%
NuPS81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SibboV
1.75
NuPS
4.88

NuPS creates 179% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

SibboV
2.50
NuPS
7.00

allows per match

SibboV
2.75
NuPS
1.00

finishing

SibboV+0.00on par
NuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SibboV ↓

NuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–44%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–24%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
73%27%

Double chance

SibboV or draw
19%
SibboV or NuPS
90%
Draw or NuPS
91%

Winning margin

SibboV wins by 2+
4%
NuPS wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

SibboV 1+ goals
83%
SibboV 2+ goals
52%
SibboV 3+ goals
25%
NuPS 1+ goals
99%
NuPS 2+ goals
94%
NuPS 3+ goals
83%

Draw no bet

SibboV (draw refunded)
10%
NuPS (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SibboV at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

NuPS away — creates 7.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SibboV attack 2.50 + NuPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

NuPS attack 7.00 + SibboV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 4.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

SibboV scores more
9%
level
10%
NuPS scores more
81%

NuPS at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "NuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SibboV vs NuPS

NuPS beat SibboV 7-1 in Suomen Cup on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Söderkullan tekonurmi in Sipoo.