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Šiauliai vs Sūduva II — 1 Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
4 – 0
Sūduva II
Sūduva II
3/20/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Šiauliai69%
×Draw18%
Sūduva II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
2.38
Sūduva II
0.94

Šiauliai creates 153% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 13 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
2.69
Sūduva II
0.69

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.19
Sūduva II
2.08

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Sūduva II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Sūduva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
87%
Šiauliai or Sūduva II
82%
Draw or Sūduva II
31%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
46%
Sūduva II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
91%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
68%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
42%
Sūduva II 1+ goals
61%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
24%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
84%
Sūduva II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Sūduva II away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 2.69 + Sūduva II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sūduva II attack 0.69 + Šiauliai defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Šiauliai scores more
69%
level
18%
Sūduva II scores more
13%

Šiauliai at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šiauliai vs Sūduva II

Šiauliai beat Sūduva II 4-0 in 1 Lyga on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.