Šiauliai 4–0 Panevėžys II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Šiauliai

FT

4 – 0

Panevėžys II

7/10/2020

1 Lyga · Round 6Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Šiauliai61%

×Draw19%

Panevėžys II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠiauliaiExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.33

Šiauliai

2.44

Panevėžys II

1.33

Šiauliai creates 83% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 81 away

2.69

creates per match

1.47

1.19

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Šiauliai

2.69

Panevėžys II

1.47

allows per match

Šiauliai

1.19

Panevėžys II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Panevėžys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw

80%

Šiauliai or Panevėžys II

81%

Draw or Panevėžys II

39%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+

40%

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals

91%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

70%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

43%

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

74%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

38%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

76%

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 2.69 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.44

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Šiauliai defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Šiauliai scores more

61%

level

19%

Panevėžys II scores more

20%

Šiauliai at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff