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Šiauliai vs Kauno Žalgiris — A Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
3/17/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 4Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Šiauliai35%
×Draw27%
Kauno Žalgiris39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 127 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
1.37
Kauno Žalgiris
1.46

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.16
Kauno Žalgiris
1.08

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
61%
Šiauliai or Kauno Žalgiris
73%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
65%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
15%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
71%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
35%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
13%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
73%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
38%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
47%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 1.37 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.46 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Šiauliai scores more
35%
level
27%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
39%

Kauno Žalgiris at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šiauliai vs Kauno Žalgiris

Šiauliai beat Kauno Žalgiris 2-1 in A Lyga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.