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Kauno Žalgiris vs Šiauliai — A Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
5/23/2025A LygaA Lyga · Round 13S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris50%
×Draw25%
Šiauliai25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.59
Šiauliai
1.05

Kauno Žalgiris creates 51% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.73
Šiauliai
1.13

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
0.98
Šiauliai
1.45

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
75%
Kauno Žalgiris or Šiauliai
75%
Draw or Šiauliai
50%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
26%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
80%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
47%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
21%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
65%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
28%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
67%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.98 · 127 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.73 + Šiauliai defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Šiauliai attack 1.13 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
50%
level
25%
Šiauliai scores more
25%

Kauno Žalgiris at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris vs Šiauliai

Kauno Žalgiris beat Šiauliai 3-0 in A Lyga on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas in Kaunas.