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Šiauliai vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
1 – 1
Banga II
Banga II
4/3/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 3Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Šiauliai67%
×Draw18%
Banga II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
2.41
Banga II
1.07

Šiauliai creates 125% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
2.69
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.19
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
85%
Šiauliai or Banga II
82%
Draw or Banga II
33%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
44%
Banga II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
91%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
69%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
43%
Banga II 1+ goals
66%
Banga II 2+ goals
29%
Banga II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
81%
Banga II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 2.69 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.41

Banga II attack 0.95 + Šiauliai defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Šiauliai scores more
67%
level
18%
Banga II scores more
15%

Šiauliai at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šiauliai vs Banga II

Šiauliai and Banga II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.