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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
4/20/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg61%
×Draw20%
Wiązownica19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.21
Wiązownica
1.15

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 92% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 70 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
81%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Wiązownica
80%
Draw or Wiązownica
39%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
38%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
89%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
65%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
38%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
68%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
32%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
76%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.21

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
61%
level
20%
Wiązownica scores more
19%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1–0 Wiązownica

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Wiązownica 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.