Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0–3 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nieciecza

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko KS Orzeł

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg42%

×Draw21%

Nieciecza37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siarka TarnobrzegExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.90

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

2.05

Nieciecza

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

3.00

creates per match

2.50

1.29

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

3.00

Nieciecza

2.50

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

Nieciecza

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Nieciecza →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw

63%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Nieciecza

79%

Draw or Nieciecza

58%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

24%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

87%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

61%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

33%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

85%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

56%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

54%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 3.00 + Nieciecza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Nieciecza attack 2.50 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

42%

level

21%

Nieciecza scores more

37%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff