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Shumen 2007 vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
CANC
00:00
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
3/21/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 20Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Shumen 200745%
×Draw24%
Suvorovo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
1.69
Suvorovo
1.35

Shumen 2007 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 20 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
69%
Shumen 2007 or Suvorovo
76%
Draw or Suvorovo
55%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
24%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
82%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
50%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
24%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
74%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
39%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
60%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
45%
level
24%
Suvorovo scores more
31%

Shumen 2007 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shumen 2007 host Suvorovo

March 21, 2020: Shumen 2007 take on Suvorovo in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shumen 2007 host Suvorovo at Stadion Panayot Volov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.