Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shumen 2007 vs Spartak Varna II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
3 – 0
Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
4/30/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 17Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200761%
×Draw21%
Spartak Varna II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.08
Spartak Varna II
1.04

Shumen 2007 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Spartak Varna II
1.24

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Spartak Varna II
1.70

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Spartak Varna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
82%
Shumen 2007 or Spartak Varna II
79%
Draw or Spartak Varna II
39%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
38%
Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
87%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
61%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
34%
Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
65%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
28%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
77%
Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Spartak Varna II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.08

Spartak Varna II attack 1.24 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
61%
level
21%
Spartak Varna II scores more
18%

Shumen 2007 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shumen 2007 vs Spartak Varna II

Shumen 2007 beat Spartak Varna II 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.