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Shumen 2007 vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
CANC
00:00
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
10/5/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 8Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200774%
×Draw16%
Lokomotiv Ruse10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.59
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.86

Shumen 2007 creates 201% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
90%
Shumen 2007 or Lokomotiv Ruse
84%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
26%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
52%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
92%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
73%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
47%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
21%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
88%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.59

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
74%
level
16%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
10%

Shumen 2007 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shumen 2007 vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Match Preview

Shumen 2007 face Lokomotiv Ruse on October 5, 2019 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shumen 2007 host Lokomotiv Ruse at Stadion Panayot Volov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.