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Shumen 2007 vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
2 – 0
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
11/14/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 14Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shumen 200788%
×Draw8%
Inter Dobrich4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
3.70
Inter Dobrich
0.71

Shumen 2007 creates 421% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
96%
Shumen 2007 or Inter Dobrich
92%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
12%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
74%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
97%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
87%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
69%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
51%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
16%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
96%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.70

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
88%
level
8%
Inter Dobrich scores more
4%

Shumen 2007 at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shumen 2007 vs Inter Dobrich

Shumen 2007 beat Inter Dobrich 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.