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Shukura vs Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shukura
Shukura
CANC
11:00
Zugdidi
Zugdidi
8/17/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shukura52%
×Draw26%
Zugdidi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.50
Zugdidi
0.88

Shukura creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.57
Zugdidi
0.96

allows per match

Shukura
0.80
Zugdidi
1.42

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
78%
Shukura or Zugdidi
74%
Draw or Zugdidi
48%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
26%
Zugdidi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
78%
Shukura 2+ goals
44%
Shukura 3+ goals
19%
Zugdidi 1+ goals
59%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
22%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
70%
Zugdidi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Zugdidi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.57 + Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zugdidi attack 0.96 + Shukura defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shukura scores more
52%
level
26%
Zugdidi scores more
22%

Shukura at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shukura host Zugdidi

August 17, 2020: Shukura take on Zugdidi in Erovnuli Liga 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.