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Shukura vs Samgurali — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Samgurali
Samgurali
6/6/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 20Ilia Kokaias Sakhelobis Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shukura30%
×Draw24%
Samgurali47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.30
Samgurali
1.69

Samgurali creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 102 away

creates per match

Shukura
0.95
Samgurali
1.22

allows per match

Shukura
2.16
Samgurali
1.65

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Samgurali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
53%
Shukura or Samgurali
76%
Draw or Samgurali
70%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
13%
Samgurali wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
73%
Shukura 2+ goals
37%
Shukura 3+ goals
14%
Samgurali 1+ goals
82%
Samgurali 2+ goals
50%
Samgurali 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
39%
Samgurali (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

Samgurali away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 0.95 + Samgurali defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Samgurali attack 1.22 + Shukura defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shukura scores more
30%
level
24%
Samgurali scores more
47%

Samgurali at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Shukura 2–2 Samgurali

Shukura and Samgurali drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga on June 6, 2023.

The match was played at Ilia Kokaias Sakhelobis Tsentri in Tbilisi.