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Shukura vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
4/28/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 9Chele Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Shukura54%
×Draw23%
Merani Tbilisi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.80
Merani Tbilisi
1.09

Shukura creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 64 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.57
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Shukura
0.80
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
77%
Shukura or Merani Tbilisi
77%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
46%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
30%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
83%
Shukura 2+ goals
54%
Shukura 3+ goals
27%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
66%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
30%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
70%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.57 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.80

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Shukura defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shukura scores more
54%
level
23%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
23%

Shukura at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shukura vs Merani Tbilisi

Shukura beat Merani Tbilisi 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 28, 2022.

The match was played at Chele Arena in Kobuleti.